Indian students look for options as Trump steps up visa scrutiny

The acceptance of visas for students headed to the US for computer science, digital technologies and related areas will continue as these competencies will be in high demand in US, according to Narayanan Ramaswamy, partner and leader for education and skill development practice at consulting firm KPMG.

But not all subjects will be preferred, Ramaswamy told Mint. “Even in this (tech) domain, while visas for lower order skills like coding, maintenance, etc. could be limited, students who specialise in implementation of technologies such as AI, cloud, cyber security, etc. and focus on strategic realignment of businesses due to these technologies will be in demand.”

Visa success rate drops

In 2024, more than 260,000 Indian students went to the US in the 2022-2023 academic session, a 35% jump over the previous session. They typically go for higher studies to American institutions on the F1 and M1 visas for full-time and vocational courses, respectively. But while Trump is yet to reveal new visa rules, his key election rhetoric was to clamp down on illegal immigration and only allow select professionals to work in the US.

“They (Trump administration) have made it pretty clear in most of the statements also that people who would add value to their economy are most welcome,” Rachit Agarwal, co-founder of Admit Kard, a study abroad consultant. “There is more scrutiny for students going to the US; we have already started seeing that in the US visas rejection numbers versus visa rejections over last 6 months, compared to the same figure probably last year or year back.”

Student visa success rates for the US, which historically hovered around 99%, have dropped significantly to about 70% over the past six months, marking an unusual decline, Agarwal said.

Those seeking to pursue a business management degree may run into a bump. “The demand for typical management program has seen a gradual plateau and that trend will continue,” KPMG’s Ramaswamy said. “Among these, visas for students heading for Ivy league (and similar such) business schools will continue to be in demand.”

H-1B link to student visas

Trump has repeatedly stressed his preference for “quality workers”, which may have a bearing on H-1B visas that allow employers to recruit foreign nationals in the US on a temporary arrangement. Companies also use L1 visas to get employees onshore.

On a question regarding H-1B permits, typically cornered by tech companies, Trump said on Tuesday (21 January), “I like competent people coming to the country—not just engineers but quality workers from all levels. I know the H-1B programme very well. I use the programme… Maître d’s, wine experts, even waiters, high quality waiters. You got to get the best people.”

The US typically offers 85,000 H-1B visas every year. Of this, 60,000-65,000 are offered via lottery and the rest to highly qualified employees.

Many F1 student visas eventually do convert into H-1B or post-study work permits, Admit Kard’s Agarwal said. “Any change in post-study work permits or stricter H1B policies will undoubtedly impact student sentiment towards the USA.”

US has been a popular destination for students, along with Canada and Australia. But it is also an expensive choice, where an undergraduate course can cost $45,000 the fees for a two-year postgraduate programme, including accommodation, could go up to $100,000.

“[But] parents have cast a wider net on the options other than the US for their children,” Namita Mehta, president of The Red Pen-an education consultant firm, told Mint. 

“Parents now want to send their children to European and some Southeast Asian universities,” Mehta told Mint. “Over the past five years, the number of students choosing the US, once the most sought-after destination, has declined by half.”

Mehta expects more scrutiny on post-graduate students under the new Trump administration. “Parents are also worried about the rise in political activism in the colleges,” said Mehta, whose firms sends 150 students for undergraduate courses, 70-80 for postgraduate courses and 100 for MBA courses to the US every year.

Canada, Australia clamp down too

To make matters worse, Canada and Australia have also clamped down on the number of international students over the last couple of years.

“Canada’s policy changes towards Indian students have significantly impacted that market,” Agarwal said. “With Canada no longer serving as a backup for the US, we can expect a notable shift towards Europe, potentially making America’s loss Europe’s gain.”

Some consultants, however, do not expect a dent in US visas for students, except, maybe, a short-term blip. “There will be some perceived impact for sure, in the absolute short term,” said Akshay Chaturvedi, founder and chief executive officer of New Delhi-based study abroad firm Leverage Edu. “But there is nothing that shouts policy revamp that doesn’t favour international students.”

Chaturvedi predicts a surge in M1 visas, issued for vocational training in the US, driven by the increasing demand for teachers. “School districts in Baltimore, Washington District are in need of teachers. While I don’t think F1 is in any trouble, I would definitely like to think M1 is a route America wants to use more than before.”

Sonal Kapoor, chief business officer at Prodigy Finance, a fintech offering loans to international students, told Mint that 70%-75% of their students choose the US for STEM and MBA courses. “As of now, no new policies have been implemented, so we haven’t seen any impact on students heading to the US.”