From Peak to Trough to Recovery: India’s Equity Market Odyssey

Indian equity markets have staged a remarkable comeback, with major indices now trading just 1-5 per cent below their September 24, 2024, peaks, following a swift recovery from early-March 2025 lows. The correction phase between September 2024 and March 4, 2025, was severe — the Nifty 100 plunged 17 per cent, while Nifty Midcap 150 and Nifty Smallcap 250 tumbled 21 per cent and 26 per cent,respectively. However, March 2025 marked a turning point and there has been a strong recovery since.

As most broader indices have recouped their losses, let’s examine the standout winners and notable laggards during this tumultuous nine-month journey from September 24, 2024, to June 27, 2025. During the period, Nifty India Defence gained the most – 31 per cent, followed by Nifty Financial Services Ex-Bank (11 per cent) and Nifty Bank (7 per cent). The biggest losers were Nifty Energy (-16 per cent), Nifty EV and New Age Automotive (-15 per cent), and Nifty FMCG (-15 per cent).

The returns in the chart below are for the period from the date of the respective indices peak in September till now.

Large-cap segment (Nifty 100): Out of 100 large-cap stocks, only 28 managed to recover and post gains over the nine-month period. Defence and select financials led gains, while selective energy and auto stocks dragged the segment down significantly.

Mid-cap segment (Nifty Midcap 150): Roughly one-third of the 150 mid-cap stocks rebounded and ended in the green during the period. Mid-caps fared slightly better, with stronger recovery breadth. Select industrials and financial services helped lift returns, but the segment was weighed down by volatility in newer-age and consumption-linked sectors.

Small-cap segment (Nifty Smallcap 250): Among small-cap stocks, 85 out of 250 saw a rebound and closed higher by the end of the period. Strong recoveries were seen in manufacturing, and defence-related names drove performance in this segment. Select textiles, renewables and telecom equipment stocks witnessed the sharpest corrections.

Published on June 28, 2025